Climate

More than 40 heat indices are being used across the world to quantify outdoor thermal comfort. The selection of an Outdoor Heat Stress Index (OHSI) depends on several parameters, including clothing, age, awareness, local environment, food consumption, human activities, and resources. This study investigates various indicators of heat stress, including (i) OHSIs officially used to quantify heat stress worldwide, (ii) the estimation methods of these indices, and (iii) the sensitivity analysis of indices, namely, Corrected Effective Temperature (CET), Heat Index (HI), Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), Discomfort Index (DI), Summer Simmer Index (SSI), and Predicted Mean Vote (PMV). The results indicate the degree of sensitivity of indices, with the HI being the most sensitive for estimating heat stress. Additionally, the WBGT, HI, and CET are recommended indices that can be directly measured using sensors instead of relying on calculated indices that are based on estimation techniques and some ideal physical assumptions. Full article

In areas with a limited or non-existent network of observing stations, it is critical to assess the applicability of gridded datasets. This study examined the agreement of Agri4Cast and E-OBS at two spatial resolutions (10 km (EOBS-0.1) and 25 km (EOBS-0.25)) in 13 Mediterranean stations nearby to wheat crops and how this agreement may influence simulated potential development and production with the crop simulation model (CSM) CERES-Wheat in historical and near-future (2021–2040) (NF) periods. A wide range of sensitivity tests for maximum and minimum air temperatures and impact response surfaces were used for the future projections. EOBS-0.1 showed the lowest discrepancies over observations. It underestimated statistical measures of temperature and precipitation raw data and their corresponding extreme indices and overestimated solar radiation. These discrepancies caused small delays (5–6 days, on average) in crop development and overestimations (8%) in grain production in the reference period. In the NF, the use of EOBS-0.1 reduced by a few (2–3) days the biases in crop development, while yield responses differed among stations. This research demonstrated the ability of EOBS-0.1 for agricultural applications that depend on potential wheat development and productivity in historical and future climate conditions expected in the Mediterranean basin. Full article

A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases. Three main climatic drivers were considered, following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite “all anthropogenic forcings combined” time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic time series was that recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted. One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The other TSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperature estimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to the primary drivers of the observed warming. Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how these scientific challenges might be resolved are offered. Full article

A distinction is made between data rescue (i.e., copying, digitizing, and archiving) and data recovery that implies deciphering, interpreting, and transforming early instrumental readings and their metadata to obtain high-quality datasets in modern units. This requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes: palaeography and knowledge of Latin and other languages to read the handwritten logs and additional documents; history of science to interpret the original text, data, and metadata within the cultural frame of the 17th, 18th, and early 19th centuries; physics and technology to recognize bias of early instruments or calibrations, or to correct for observational bias; and astronomy to calculate and transform the original time in canonical hours that started from twilight. The liquid-in-glass thermometer was invented in 1641 and the earliest temperature records started in 1654. Since then, different types of thermometers have been invented, based on the thermal expansion of air or selected thermometric liquids with deviation from linearity. Reference points, thermometric scales, and calibration methodologies were not comparable, and not always adequately described. Thermometers had various locations and exposures, e.g., indoor, outdoor, on windows, gardens or roofs, facing different directions. Readings were made only one or a few times a day, not necessarily respecting a precise time schedule: this bias is analysed for the most popular combinations of reading times. The time was based on sundials and local Sun, but the hours were counted starting from twilight. In 1789–1790, Italy changed system and all cities counted hours from their lower culmination (i.e., local midnight), so that every city had its local time; in 1866, all the Italian cities followed the local time of Rome; in 1893, the whole of Italy adopted the present-day system, based on the Coordinated Universal Time and the time zones. In 1873, when the International Meteorological Committee (IMC) was founded, later transformed into the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a standardization of instruments and observational protocols was established, and all data became fully comparable. In dealing with the early instrumental period, from 1654 to 1873, the comparison, correction, and homogenization of records is quite difficult, mainly because of the scarcity or even absence of metadata. This paper deals with this confused situation, discussing the main problems, but also the methodologies to recognize missing metadata, distinguish indoor from outdoor readings, correct and transform early datasets in unknown or arbitrary units into modern units, and, finally, in which cases it is possible to reach the quality level required by the WMO. The aim is to explain the methodology needed to recover early instrumental records, i.e., the operations that should be performed to decipher, interpret, correct, and transform the original raw data into a high-quality dataset of temperature, usable for climate studies. Full article

This study was motivated by the high reliance on hydropower plants (HPPs) developed and planned along the river Nile and the fact that drought events are the most imminent and drastic threats to Uganda’s power production. The study aimed to assess HPPs’ resilience and the effectiveness of selected adaptation measures. The climate, land, energy, and water system (CLEWs) framework was employed to assess resilience amidst competing water demands and stringent environmental flow requirements. Under extreme dry conditions, power generation could plummet by 91% over the next 40 years, which translates into an annual per capita consumption of 19 kWh, barely sufficient to sustain a decent socioeconomic livelihood. During arid conditions, climate models predicted an increase in streamflow with increasing radiative forcing. Restricting the ecological flow to 150 m³/s could improve generation by 207%. In addition, if planned power plants were to be built 5 years ahead of schedule, the normalized mean annual plant production could increase by 23%. In contrast, increasing reservoir volumes for planned power plants will have no significant impact on generation. The path to HPP resilience could entail a combination of diversifying the generation mix, installing generators with varying capacities, and incorporating adjustable orifices on reservoirs. Full article

This study aims to assess the changes in the atmospheric conditions favorable to storm surges over the Santos Coast in Southeast Brazil. Storm surges can favor high sea level rises and coastal erosion, affecting people and strategic structures in coastal areas. The assessment of the atmospheric conditions was based on the downscaling of climate simulations of the Brazilian Earth System Model by the Eta regional climate model at higher spatial resolution. The detection scheme used by the model was able to reproduce the three observed atmospheric patterns favorable to storm surges found by recent studies: Pattern 1 is characterized by a cyclone on the synoptic scale over the ocean; Pattern 2 presents an intense wind fetch from the southeast; Pattern 3 is characterized by winds parallel to the coast. The simulations underestimated the number of cases in Patterns 1 and 2. However, it overestimated the number of days in Pattern 3. The model presented more intense winds in the three patterns. The storm surges characterized by Pattern 1 will become more intense. However, it will be equal to or less frequent. In Pattern 2, the number of events will decrease. Nevertheless, these episodes will be associated with more precipitation along the coastline. Pattern 3 will have a similar number of storm surges. Full article

Bamboo, a rapidly growing woody grass prevalent in pan-tropical zones, holds promising potential as a nature-based solution (NbS) for climate change mitigation. In this systematic review of 91 research articles, we critically assess the scope and constraints of bamboo’s role in mitigating climate change across three dimensions: as a carbon sink in biomass form, as carbon storage in bamboo products, and as a contributor to carbon project credits. Our analysis reveals that existing studies disproportionately focus on 36 limited species, such as Phyllostachys pubescens and Bambusa vulgaris, with geographic concentration in Asia (91%) and limited studies from Africa (7%) and South America (1%). While many studies emphasize the carbon-saving benefits of bamboo products compared with traditional goods, there is a noticeable gap in comprehensive evaluations of carbon pools from individual bamboo forests encompassing all product varieties. While bamboo forests offer significant carbon trading potential, their global role is restricted by the absence of internationally accepted methodologies and the presence of debates about classifying bamboo as a tree species. This extensive review highlights the multifaceted value of bamboo in climate change mitigation, thereby highlighting its significance as a critical component for informed policymaking and the development of sustainable practices in future climate strategies worldwide. Full article

Cities around the world are facing the implications of a changing climate as an increasingly pressing issue. The negative effects of climate change are already being felt today. Therefore, adaptation to these changes is a mission that every city must master. Leading practices worldwide demonstrate various urban efforts on climate change adaptation (CCA) which are already underway. Above all, the integration of climate data, remote sensing, and in situ data is key to a successful and measurable adaptation strategy. Furthermore, these data can act as a timely decision support tool for municipalities to develop an adaptation strategy, decide which actions to prioritize, and gain the necessary buy-in from local policymakers. The implementation of agile data workflows can facilitate the integration of climate data into climate-resilient urban planning. Due to local specificities, (supra)national, regional, and municipal policies and (by) laws, as well as geographic and related climatic differences worldwide, there is no single path to climate-resilient urban planning. Agile data workflows can support interdepartmental collaboration and, therefore, need to be integrated into existing management processes and government structures. Agile management, which has its origins in software development, can be a way to break down traditional management practices, such as static waterfall models and sluggish stage-gate processes, and enable an increased level of flexibility and agility required when urgent. This paper presents the findings of an empirical case study conducted in cooperation with the City of Constance in southern Germany, which is pursuing a transdisciplinary and trans-sectoral co-development approach to make management processes more agile in the context of climate change adaptation. The aim is to present a possible way of integrating climate data into CCA planning by changing the management approach and implementing a toolbox for low-threshold access to climate data. The city administration, in collaboration with the University of Applied Sciences Constance, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), and the University of Stuttgart, developed a co-creative and participatory project, CoKLIMAx, with the objective of integrating climate data into administrative processes in the form of a toolbox. One key element of CoKLIMAx is the involvement of the population, the city administration, and political decision-makers through targeted communication and regular feedback loops among all involved departments and stakeholder groups. Based on the results of a survey of 72 administrative staff members and a literature review on agile management in municipalities and city administrations, recommendations on a workflow and communication structure for cross-departmental strategies for resilient urban planning in the City of Constance were developed. Full article

This review summarizes the intricate relationship between climate change and forest ecosystems in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, outlining both their resilience and vulnerabilities. The study asserts the significant impact of climate change on these ecosystems, reinforcing earlier theories about their responsive behavior to global climatic alterations. However, the impacts are highly localized, contingent upon specific forest compositions, topography, and interaction with other environmental stressors. The temperate forests of the Northwest Iberian Peninsula manifest a delicate balance of resilience and vulnerability in the face of these phenomena. Notably, the study underscores that this region’s forest ecosystems remain a relatively uncharted research territory, promising fruitful prospects for future exploration. Although existing studies offer vital insights into the climate change impacts, there is a stark need for further research to gain a deeper understanding of, and formulate appropriate responses to, the challenges that these specific ecosystems confront in the wake of climate change. Full article

As the global climate is changing dramatically, the Westfjords of Iceland are facing a multitude of challenges, including changing weather patterns, sea level rise, and invasive species. In order to cope with the recent climatic changes—many of which present great uncertainties to livelihoods—strategies must be developed to plan and adapt for the future. Iceland has recently launched marine spatial planning (MSP) endeavours, and one of the first planning processes has been conducted in the Westfjords. MSP presents opportunities for authorities, stakeholders, and the public to come together to forge a sustainable path ahead for marine areas that are under increasing pressure from human activities. However, MSP comes with its own considerable challenges as it attempts to engage stakeholders and the general public in decisions about an ‘invisible’ space largely beneath the surface of the sea. In this paper, the uncertainties of the environmental changes will be explored in conjunction with the multitude of societal challenges to coastal and marine planning in the Westfjords to establish Iceland’s unique context for MSP and to make recommendations for its development. Data from the planning documents as well as from semi-structured interviews and a workshop conducted in the Westfjords will be analysed and discussed. The results show both an urgent environmental need to take action to adapt to ongoing climate change effects and a complex societal structure that favours those who already have power and influence over others. Our recommendations include reforming the Icelandic MSP process with a view to strengthening the public participatory channels as well as the transparency, trust, and accessibility of the process. Full article

The adverse and severe impacts of climate-induced natural hazards, which are expected to be aggravated by climate change, are forming a wider outline of the environmental crisis, being a source of negative emotions for human societies. Children and young people, in particular, are one of the most vulnerable social groups to this distress. In this research, we intend to analyze the eco-anxiety and climate anxiety aspects of Generation Z, based on a critical review of studies on children’s and young people’s ecological feelings worldwide, alongside a study of actual data on natural disasters per country since the year 2000. The results of the research revealed that (a) Generation Z worries in the Global North and suffers in the Global South, (b) Generation Z acts against climate change, and (c) there is an existential dimension of children’s and young people’s eco-anxiety. The study also highlights dimensions of eco-anxiety that are under-researched and are important to explore in the future. Empathizing with Generation Z’s emotional state in relation to ecological crisis and climate change may affect and highlight new directions in environmental thought and awareness. Full article

The transport sector is the second leading emitter of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from fuel combustion activities on a global scale. Reducing emissions related to this sector requires detailed data about the emissions by vehicle type and traveled distance. Generally, these data are missing in developing countries, which makes difficult the establishment of effective policies for the reduction of these emissions. This paper presents a hybrid method to estimate these emissions using the IPCC 2006 guidelines. The method combines bottom-up and top-down approaches to estimate vehicular emissions using data about the vehicle type, vehicle kilometers traveled, and fuel consumption. This method is applied for the first time for the Palestinian territory. Data have been collected from the administration, official reports, and papers. The results show a significant increase in the total vehicles in Palestine, particularly diesel vehicles. Emissions from the on-road transport system were approximately 2,207,834 tons of CO₂eq in 2019. Diesel vehicles were responsible for about 75% of these emissions. Private cars were the most significant contributor to these emissions, with a share exceeding 50% of the total emissions, followed by commercial vehicles and light trucks (20%), public taxis (9%), and buses (7%). These results show clearly that the GHGEs reduction policies in Palestine should focus on diesel and private vehicles by developing the public transport systems and replacing diesel and gasoline vehicles with more environmentally friendly vehicles, such as hybrid and electric cars. Full article

New environmental extremes are currently underway and are much greater than those in previous records. These are mostly regional, singular events that are caused by global change/local weather combinations and are larger than the impact of linear temperature increases projected using climate models. These new states cannot easily be assigned probabilities because they often have no historical analogs. Thus, the term super climate extremes is used. Examples are the loss of sea ice and ecosystem reorganization in northern marine Alaska, heatwave extreme in western Canada, and the loss of snow in Greenland. New combined extreme occurrences, which are reported almost daily, lead to a new, higher level of climate change urgency. The loss of sea ice in 2018–2019 was a result of warmer Arctic temperatures and changes in the jet stream. They resulted in a chain of impacts from southerly winds, the northward movement of predatory fish, and the reduction of food security for coastal communities. Record temperatures were measured in southwestern British Columbia following previous drought conditions, a confluence of two storm tracks, and warming through atmospheric subsidence. Greenland’s losses had clear skies and jet stream events. Such new extremes are present indicators of climate change. Their impacts result from the interaction between physical and ecological processes, and they justify the creation of a new climate change category based on super climate extremes. Full article

According to data obtained from meteorological towers, Brazil has significantly increased temperature in the past 20 years, particularly in the North and Midwest regions. Vapor pressure deficit and evapotranspiration were also analyzed, showing an increase across the entire country, confirming that the air is becoming drier. This warming trend is part of the global climate change phenomenon caused by the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, fires, poor soil management practices, deforestation, and logging. The increase in temperature and dryness has profoundly impacted Brazil’s climate and ecosystems, leading to intensified extreme weather events and changes in the distribution of both animal and plant species. This study highlights the importance of utilizing meteorological tower data to monitor and understand the effects of climate change in Brazil. It emphasizes the need for immediate action to address its causes and mitigate its negative impacts. Full article

A prevalent engineering task in practice is calculating the annual balance of sediments on some watercourses. This is particularly challenging when assessing the backfilling of river reservoirs that have a multifunctional purpose. Trakošćan Lake was built in the period from 1850 to 1862 as a pond and landscape addition to the park and Trakošćan castle. After 60 years, the lake was drained in 2022, and the work began on sediment excavation to improve the lake’s ecological condition due to about 200,000 cubic meters of deposited silt in the lake. In this research, the annual sediment production is calculated for the long-term period 1961–2020, based on empirical parametric methods (Fleming, Brunne). The results are compared with results from previous projects and recent sediment deposit investigations. Since there are no changes in LC/LU on this natural catchment, the decreasing trends in long-term sediment transport were compared with meteorological values, daily rainfall, and snow days. It is concluded that the intensity characteristics of the rainfall should be investigated more in detail and could provide much more tangible information regarding climate change impacts. Some targets for future monitoring design and research techniques are set. Full article

Drought events are critical environmental threats that yield several socioeconomic impacts. Such effects are even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential for the continent, such as agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation and hydrological drought occurrence in SA through climate projections from eight global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To this end, statistical downscaling was applied to the projections obtained using the quantile delta mapping technique, and the method proved to be efficient in reducing systematic biases and preserving GCMs’ trends. For the following decades, the results show considerable and statistically significant reductions in precipitation over most of SA, especially during the austral spring, with the most intense signal under the SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about projections of the frequency and intensity of drought events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding the increased duration and severity of events over the continent and a substantial proportion of moderate and severe events over most of Brazil during the 21st century. These results can be helpful for better management of water resources by decision-makers and energy planners. Full article

This paper presents a comprehensive review of low-carbon materials and construction techniques commonly used in vernacular buildings. The study highlights the relevance of vernacular architecture in the context of the shift towards sustainable construction practices. A combination of a climatic zone map, vernacular language type map, and continent map is used to identify the vernacular regions. Eight bio-based low-carbon materials, including wood, adobe, rammed earth, cob, sod, thatch, bamboo, and straw bales, are discussed, along with their characteristics, availability, and environmental impacts. The construction techniques associated with these materials are explained, emphasizing their simplicity, cost-effectiveness, and adaptability. The paper also explores two important design approaches: design for disassembly and design for modularity that were used in vernacular building. The review found the use of low-carbon materials and construction techniques derived from vernacular architecture can contribute to minimizing waste, reducing environmental impacts, and promoting a circular economy in the building industry. This research provides valuable insights for architects, engineers, and policymakers seeking sustainable alternatives in the construction sector. Full article

This study analyzed long-term extreme precipitation indices using 4 × 4 km gridded data obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia between 1981 and 2018. The study examined trends in extreme precipitation over three districts (Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint, and Simada) in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann–Kendall (MK) trend tests were used to study extreme precipitation trends. Based on the ITA result, the calculated values of nine indices (90% of the analyzed indices) showed significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 70% (seven indices) showed significantly increasing trends at p < 0.01. On the other hand, 60% of the extreme indices showed significant downward trends (p < 0.01) in Simada. The MK test revealed that 30% of the extreme indices had significantly increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 30% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05, while 10% of the extreme indices exhibited significant increasing trends at p < 0.01. In Simada, 20% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05. Overall, the results showed that the ITA method can identify a variety of significant trends that the MK test misses. Full article

Climate change can have an influence on rainfall that significantly affects the magnitude frequency of floods and droughts. Therefore, the analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution, variability, and trends of rainfall over the Mahi Basin in India is an important objective of the present work. Accordingly, a serial autocorrelation, coefficient of variation, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope test, innovative trend analysis (ITA), and Pettitt’s test were used in the rainfall analysis. The outcomes were derived from the monthly precipitation data (1901–2012) of 14 meteorology stations in the Mahi Basin. The serial autocorrelation results showed that there is no autocorrelation in the data series. The rainfall statistics denoted that the Mahi Basin receives 94.8% of its rainfall (821 mm) in the monsoon period (June–September). The normalized accumulated departure from the mean reveals that the annual and monsoon rainfall of the Mahi Basin were below average from 1901 to 1930 and above average from 1930 to 1990, followed by a period of fluctuating conditions. Annual and monsoon rainfall variations increase in the lower catchment of the basin. The annual and monsoon rainfall trend analysis specified a significant declining tendency for four stations and an increasing tendency for 3 stations, respectively. A significant declining trend in winter rainfall was observed for 9 stations under review. Likewise, out of 14 stations, 9 stations denote a significant decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall. Nevertheless, there is no significant increasing or decreasing tendency in annual, monsoon, and post-monsoon rainfall in the Mahi Basin. The Mann–Kendall test and innovative trend analysis indicate identical tendencies of annual and seasonal rainfall on the basin scale. The annual and monsoon rainfall of the basin showed a positive shift in rainfall after 1926. The rainfall analysis confirms that despite spatiotemporal variations in rainfall, there are no significant positive or negative trends of annual and monsoon rainfall on the basin scale. It suggests that the Mahi Basin received average rainfall (867 mm) annually and in the monsoon season (821 mm) from 1901 to 2012, except for a few years of high and low rainfall. Therefore, this study is important for flood and drought management, agriculture, and water management in the Mahi Basin. Full article