GeoHazards

With climate change and intensification of the hydrological cycle, the stationarity of hydrological variables is becoming questionable, requiring appropriate flood assessment models. Frequency analysis is widely used for flood forecasting. This study aims to determine the most suitable models (stationary and non-stationary) for estimating the maximum flows observed at some stations spread across West Africa. A statistical analysis of the annual maximum flows in terms of homogeneity, stationarity, and independence was carried out through the Pettitt, modified Mann–Kendall, and Wald–Wolfowitz tests, respectively, to identify the stations whose flows are non-stationary. After that, the best-correlated climate covariates with the annual maximum flows of the non-stationary stations were determined. The covariates explored are the climatic indices of sea surface temperatures (SST). Finally, different non-stationary GEV models were derived by varying the scale and position parameters of the best-correlated index for each station. The results indicate that 56% of the annual maximum flow series are non-stationary. As per the Bayes information criterion (BIC) values, the performance of the non-stationary models (GEV, generalized extreme values) is largely greater than that of the stationary models. These good performances of non-stationary models using climatic indices open perspectives for the prediction of extreme flows in the study area. Full article

To reduce the significant losses caused by slope failures and landslides, it is of great significance to detect and predict these disasters scientifically. This study focused on Huangdao District of Qingdao City in Shandong Province, using the improved Faster R-CNN network to detect slope failures and landslides. This study introduced a multi-scale feature enhancement module into the Faster R-CNN model. The module enhances the network’s perception of different scales of slope failures and landslides by deeply fusing high-resolution weak semantic features with low-resolution strong semantic features. Our experiments show that the improved Faster R-CNN model outperformed the traditional version, and that ResNet50 performed better than VGG16 with an AP value of 90.68%, F1 value of 0.94, recall value of 90.68%, and precision value of 98.17%. While the targets predicted by VGG16 were more dispersed and the false detection rate was higher than that of ResNet50, VGG16 was shown to have an advantage in predicting small-scale slope failures and landslides. The trained Faster R-CNN network model detected geological hazards of slope failure and landslide in Huangdao District, missing only two landslides, thereby demonstrating high detection accuracy. This method can provide an effective technical means for slope failures and landslides target detection and has practical implications. Full article

This study investigated erosion during infiltration and overflow events and considered different grain sizes and hydraulic conductivity properties; four experimental cases were conducted under saturated conditions. The importance of understanding flow regimes during overflow experiments including their distinct flow characteristics, shear stresses, and erosion mechanisms in assessing the potential for levee failure are discussed. The failure mechanism of levee slopes during infiltration experiments involves progressive collapse due to piping followed by increased liquefaction and loss of shear stress, with the failure progression dependent on the permeability of the foundation material and shear strength. The infiltration experiments illustrate that the rate of failure varied based on the permeability of the foundation material. In the case of IO-E7-F5, where the levee had No. 7 sand in the embankment and No. 5 sand in the foundation (lower permeability), the failure was slower and limited. It took around 90 min for 65% of the downstream slope to fail, allowing more time for response measures. On the other hand, in the case of IO-E8-F4, with No. 8 sand in the embankment and No. 4 sand in the foundation (higher hydraulic conductivity), the failure was rapid and extensive. The whole downstream slope failed within just 18 min, and the collapse extended to 75% of the levee crest. These findings emphasize the need for proactive measures to strengthen vulnerable sections of levees and reduce the risk of extensive failure. Full article

On 6 February 2023, an M7.8 devastating earthquake started rupturing the East Anatolian fault system in Turkey, resulting in intense shaking that lasted over a minute. A second earthquake of magnitude 7.5 struck near the city of Elbistan a few hours later. Both of these events are associated with the East Anatolian fault system. The earthquake sequence caused widespread damage and collapse of structures in densely populated areas throughout the Southern Turkey and Northern Syria regions and a very large number of human losses. This study focuses on the correlation of the ground deformation with the critical exposure of the infrastructures of Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş cities. The estimation of the ground deformation of the affected area is achieved with the use of Copernicus Sentinel-2 products and the Normalized Cross Correlation algorithm (NCC) of image matching. The results of the East–West component show that specific sections of the region moved towards the East direction, reaching displacement measurements of 5.4 m, while other sections moved towards the West direction, reaching displacement measurements of 2.8 m. The results of the North–South component show that almost the whole affected area moved towards the North direction, with specific areas reaching displacements of 5.5 m, and a few exemptions, as some areas moved towards the South direction, with displacements reaching even 6.9 m. Regarding the cities of Kahramanmaraş and Gaziantep, their estimated movement direction is North-West and North-East, respectively, and is consistent with the movements of the Arabian and Anatolian Plates in which they are located. Important infrastructures of the study areas (education, museums, libraries, hospitals, monuments, airports, roads and railways) are superimposed on the findings, enabling us to detect the critical exposure rapidly. Full article

Greece is located in one of the most seismically active regions in Europe. Many seismic hazard studies have been performed for various sites around Greece, at a regional or local scale. However, the latest national seismic hazard map, currently used for the seismic design of buildings and infrastructure, was published in 2000 and has not been updated since then. In light of recent advances in seismic source and ground motion modeling, the present study focuses on a comparative Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the region of East Macedonia and Thrace (EMTH), located in Northern Greece. Various seismic source models are implemented and compared against an updated earthquake catalog to form the necessary source model logic tree. The ground motion logic tree is composed of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), which have been proven suitable for implementation in Greece. PSHA results are presented for the most important cities of East Macedonia and Thrace in a comparative way, which highlights the variability of the seismic hazard among the various seismic source models. An updated seismic hazard map of the study area is proposed, and a comparative disaggregation analysis is performed to estimate the earthquake scenarios with the largest contribution to the seismic hazard. Full article

Tsunami hazard analysis is an essential step for designing buildings and infrastructure and for safeguarding people and assets in coastal areas. Coastal communities on Vancouver Island are under threat from the Cascadia megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis. Due to the deterministic nature of current megathrust earthquake scenarios, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis has not been conducted for the coast of Vancouver Island. To address this research gap, this study presents a new probabilistic tsunami hazard model for Vancouver Island from the Cascadia megathrust subduction events. To account for uncertainties of the possible rupture scenarios more comprehensively, time-dependent earthquake occurrence modeling and stochastic rupture modeling are integrated. The time-dependent earthquake model can capture a multi-modal distribution of inter-arrival time data on the Cascadia megathrust events. On the other hand, the stochastic rupture model can consider variable fault geometry, position, and earthquake slip distribution within the subduction zone. The results indicate that the consideration of different inter-arrival time distributions can result in noticeable differences in terms of site-specific tsunami hazard curves and uniform tsunami hazard curves at different return period levels. At present, the use of the one-component renewal model tends to overestimate the tsunami hazard values compared to the three-component Gaussian mixture model. With the increase in the elapsed time since the last event and the duration of tsunami hazard assessment, the differences tend to be smaller. Inspecting the regional variability of the tsunami hazards, specific segments of the Vancouver Island coast are likely to experience higher tsunami hazards due to the directed tsunami waves from the main subduction zone and due to the local underwater topography. Full article

With the increasing availability and diversity of satellite imagery, the multisensor fusion of data can more effectively address the improved monitoring of temporary water bodies. This study supports the attempt to apply well established methods to detect spatial and temporal changes in ephemeral shallow lakes in lowland karst terrain, as well as to improve the understanding concerning the dynamics of water storage and hydrological mechanisms during extreme precipitation events. Based on the joint analysis of Copernicus Sentinel SAR and optical mission data, as well as soil moisture and EO-based rainfall observations over the period of 2015–2020, we demonstrated the control of the karst system on the ephemeral lake appearances in the broader area of Chalkida (Evvia, Greece). A connection between the prolonged and extended water coverage in the ephemeral lakes and flooding in the area is documented. Our EO-supported findings may serve as indicators for flood alerts in future extreme precipitation events, improving responses in cases of emergencies. Full article

The Jacotines landslide is representative of the large mass movements that affect the Champagne vineyards. Understanding the subsurface structure of these slopes and the mechanisms leading to sliding events is of a great interest, particularly for winegrowers who produce Champagne. This knowledge is generally used to elaborate accurate hazard assessment maps, which is an important feature in land use planning. The approach presented is based on the integration of geophysical imaging (seismic wave velocity and electrical resistivity), lithostratigraphic analysis (drilling core) and geomorphological investigations (surface landforms) to reconstruct the relations between the landslide structure, surface water flow, groundwater regime and the overall slope stability. A first phase of instability resulting in a large rotational slip probably occurred during the Late Glacial Period in morphoclimatic conditions characterized by an excess of water. A second one, still active, leading to superficial reactivations and relates to present hydrogeological conditions determined by the internal structure of the landslide. Full article

In the mapping and assessment of mountain hazard susceptibility using machine learning models, the selection of model parameters plays a critical role in the accuracy of predicting models. In this study, we present a novel approach for developing a prediction model based on random forest (RF) by incorporating ensembles of hyperparameter optimization. The performance of the RF model is enhanced by employing a Bayesian optimization (Bayes) method and a genetic algorithm (GA) and verified in the Wudu section of the Bailong River basin, China, which is a typical hazard-prone, mountainous area. We identified fourteen influential factors based on field measurements to describe the “avalanche–landslide–debris flow” hazard chains in the study area. We constructed training (80%) and validation (20%) datasets for 378 hazard sites. The performance of the models was assessed using standard statistical metrics, including recall, confusion matrix, accuracy, F1, precision, and area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC), based on a multicollinearity analysis and Relief-F two-step evaluation. The results indicate that all three models, i.e., RF, GA-RF, and Bayes-RF, achieved good performance (AUC: 0.89~0.92). The Bayes-RF model outperformed the other two models (AUC = 0.92). Therefore, this model is highly accurate and robust for mountain hazard susceptibility assessment and is useful for the study area as well as other regions. Additionally, stakeholders can use the susceptibility map produced to guide mountain hazard prevention and control measures in the region. Full article

The computational simulation of rivers is a useful tool that can be applied in a wide range of situations from providing real time alerts to the design of future mitigation plans. However, for all the applications, there are two important requirements when modeling river behavior: accuracy and reasonable computational times. This target has led to recent developments in numerical models based on the full two-dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE). This work presents a GPU accelerated 2D SW model for the simulation of flood events in real time. It is based on a well-balanced explicit first-order finite volume scheme able to run over dry beds without the numerical instabilities that are likely to occur when used in complex topography. The model is applied to reproduce a real event in the reach of the Ebro River (Spain) with a downstream reservoir, in which a study of the most appropriate boundary condition (BC) for modeling of the dam is assessed (time-dependent level condition and weir condition). The whole creation of the model is detailed in terms of mesh optimization and validation. The simulation results are compared with field data over the flood duration (up to 20 days), allowing an analysis of the performance and time saved by different GPU devices and with the different BCs. The high values of fit between observed and simulated results, as well as the computational times achieved, are encouraging to propose the use of the model as a forecasting system. Full article

Offshore basalts, most commonly found as oceanic crust formed at mid-ocean ridges, are estimated to offer an almost unlimited reservoir for CO₂ sequestration and are regarded as one of the most durable locations for carbon sequestration since injected CO₂ will mineralize, forming carbonate rock. As part of the Solid Carbon project, the potential of the Cascadia Basin, about 200 km off the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, is investigated as a site for geological CO₂ sequestration. In anticipation of a demonstration proposed to take place, it is essential to assess the tendency of geologic faults in the area to slip in the presence of CO₂ injection, potentially causing seismic events. To understand the viability of the reservoir, a quantitative risk assessment of the proposed site area was conducted. This involved a detailed characterization of the proposed injection site to understand baseline stress and pressure conditions and identify individual faults or fault zones with the potential to slip and thereby generate seismicity. The results indicate that fault slip potential is minimal (less than 1%) for a constant injection of up to ~2.5 MT/yr. This is in part due to the thickness of the basalt aquifer and its permeability. The results provide a reference for assessing the potential earthquake risk from CO₂ injection in similar ocean basalt basins. Full article

The final goal of this paper is to contribute to the difficult task of understanding and forecasting submarine volcanic eruption activity by proposing a method to quantify discolored water. To achieve this purpose, we quantitatively analyzed the discolored seawater seen before and after the eruption of the marine environment around the Indonesian submarine volcano “Anak Krakatau”, which erupted at the end of December 2018, from the viewpoint of the “dominant wavelength”. The atmospherically corrected COM-C SGLI data for 17 periods from the eruption from October 2018 to March 2019 were used. As a result, the following three main items were found. First, the average ± standard deviation of the entire dominant wavelength was 497 nm ± 2 nm before the eruption and 515 nm ± 35 nm after the eruption. Second, the discolored water area around the island derived from SGLI was detected from the contour line with dominant wavelengths of 500 nm and 560 nm. Third, the size of a dominant wavelength of 500 nm or more in the discolored water areas changed in a complicated manner within the range of almost 0 to 35 km². The area of the dominant wavelength of 500 nm or more slightly increased just before the eruption. Finally, it was proven that the “dominant wavelength” from the SGLI proposed in this paper can be a very effective tool in understanding or predicting submarine volcanic activity. Full article

Coastal environments are highly recognized for their spectacular morphological features and economic activities, such as agriculture, maritime traffic, fishing, and tourism. In the context of climate change and the evolution of physical processes, the occurrence of intense natural phenomena adjacent to populated coastal areas may result in natural hazards, causing human and/or structural losses. As an outcome, scientific interest in researching and assessing multi-hazard susceptibility techniques has increased rapidly in an effort to better understand spatial patterns that are threatening coastal exposed elements, with or without temporal coincidence. The islands of Milos and Thira (Santorini Island) in Greece are prone to natural hazards due to their unique volcano-tectonic setting, the high number of tourist visits annually, and the unplanned expansion of urban fabric within the boundaries of the low-lying coastal zone. The main goal of this research is to analyze the onshore coastal terrain’s susceptibility to natural hazards, identifying regions that are vulnerable to soil erosion, torrential flooding, landslides and tsunamis. Therefore, the objective of this work is the development of a multi-hazard approach to the South Aegean Volcanic Arc (SAVA) islands, integrating them into a superimposed susceptibility map utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) analysis. The illustrated geospatial workflow introduces a promising multi-hazard tool that can be implemented in low-lying coastal regions globally, regardless of their morphometric and manmade characteristics. Consequently, findings indicated that more than 30% of built-up areas, 20% of the transportation network, and 50% of seaports are within the high and very high susceptible zones, in terms of the Extended Low Elevation Coastal Zone (ELECZ). Coastal managers and decision-makers must develop a strategic plan in order to minimize potential economic and natural losses, private property damage, and tourism infrastructure degradation from potential inundation and erosion occurrences, which are likely to increase in the foreseeable future. Full article

Geyser geothermal fields are scenic volcanic landforms that often contain tens to hundreds of thermal spot vents that erupt boiling water or contain bubbling mud pools. The fields are potentially hazardous sites due to boiling water temperatures and changes in vent locations and eruption dynamics, which are poorly understood. Here we report on the rapid and profound changes that can affect such a geyser field and ultimately lead to a dangerous, unanticipated eruption. We studied the Geyser Valley, Kamchatka Peninsula, which is a field of geysers and other thermal features and boiling pools. Using high-resolution tri-stereo satellite data and unmanned aerial systems (UAS) with optical and thermal infrared cameras in 2018 and 2019, we were able to identify a newly emerging explosion site. Structure-from-motion analysis of data acquired before and after the explosion reveals morphological and thermal details of the new vent. The explosion site produced an aureole zone of more than 150 m³ of explosively redeposited gravel and clay, a slightly elliptical crater with a diameter of 7.5 m and a crater rim 0.30 m high. However, comparison with archives of photogrammetric data suggests that this site was thermally active years earlier and contained a crater that was obscured and covered by landslides and river sediments. The results allow us to develop a conceptual model and highlight the hazard potential of thermal features buried by landslides and clastic deposits. Sudden explosions may occur at similar sites elsewhere, highlighting the need for careful assessment and monitoring of geomorphological and hydrological changes at geyser sites in other regions. Full article

We present a simple nonlinear model of a shear-beam building that experiences large nonlinear deformations and collapse when excited by large pulses of strong earthquake ground motion. In this paper, we introduce the model and show that its properties can be selected to be consistent with the damage observed in a seven-story hotel in San Fernando Valley of the Los Angeles metropolitan area during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. We also show an example of excitation that leads to the collapse of the model. We illustrate the response only for a sequence of horizontal pulses. We will describe the response of the same model to horizontal, vertical, and rocking motions at its base, as well as for more general excitation by strong earthquake ground motion, in future papers. Full article

The Himalayan state of Sikkim is prone to some of the world’s largest landslides, which have caused catastrophic damage to lives, properties, and infrastructures in the region. The settlements along the steep valley sides are particularly subject to frequent rainfall-triggered landslide events during the monsoon season. The region has also experienced smaller rock slope failures (RSF) after the 2011 Sikkim earthquake. The surface displacement field is a critical observable for determining landslide depth and constraining failure mechanisms to develop effective mitigation techniques that minimise landslide damage. In the present study, the persistent scatterers InSAR (PSI) method is employed to process the series of Sentinel 1-A/B synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired between 2015 and 2021 along ascending and descending orbits for the selected areas in Gangtok, Sikkim, to detect potentially active, landslide-prone areas. InSAR-derived ground surface displacements and their spatio-temporal evolutions are combined with field investigations to better understand the state of activity and landslide risk assessment. Field investigations confirm the ongoing ground surface displacements revealed by the InSAR results. Some urban areas have been completely abandoned due to the structural damage to residential housing, schools, and office buildings caused by displacement. This paper relates the geotechnical investigations carried out on the ground to the data obtained through interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), focusing on the triggering mechanisms. A strong correlation between seasonal rainfall and landslide acceleration, as well as predisposing geological-structural setting, suggest a causative mechanism of the landslides. Full article

Greece, like the rest of the Mediterranean countries, faces wildland fires every year. Besides their short-term socioeconomic impacts, ecological destruction, and loss of human lives, forest fires also increase the burnt areas’ risk of flash flood phenomena, as the vegetation, which acted in a protective way against runoff and soil erosion, is massively removed. Among the most severe wildland fire events in Greece were those of summer 2021, which were synchronous to the very severe heat waves that hit the broader area of the Balkan Peninsula. More than 3600 km² of land was burnt and a significant amount of natural vegetation removed. Three of the burnt areas are examined in this work, namely, Attica, Northern Euboea, and the Peloponnese, in order to assess their risk of future flash flood events. The burnt areas were mapped, and their geological and geomorphological features studied. Flash flood hazard assessment was accomplished through a Boolean logic-based model applied through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, which allowed the prioritization of the requirement for protection by identifying which locations were most prone to flooding. The largest part of our study areas is characterized by geomorphological and geological conditions that facilitate flash flood events. According to our findings, in almost all study areas, the regions downstream of the burnt areas present high to very high flash flood hazard, due to their geomorphological and geological features (slope, drainage density, and hydrolithology). The only areas that were found to be less prone to flood events were Vilia and Varimpompi (Attica), due to their gentler slope inclinations and overall geomorphological characteristics. It is known that vegetation cover acts protectively against flash floods. However, in this case, large areas were severely burnt and vegetation is absent, resulting in the appearance of flash floods. Moreover, imminent flooding events are expected to be even more intense in the areas downstream of the burnt regions, possibly bearing even worse impacts on the local population, infrastructure, etc. Full article

The eruption of Cumbre Vieja (also known as Tajogaite volcano, 19 September–13 December 2021, Spain) is an example of successful emergency management. The lessons learnt are yet to be fully disclosed as is whether the response can be further improved. The latter may include tools to predict lava flow inundation rheological characteristics, amongst other issues related to volcanic eruptions (i.e., ash fall and gas emission). The aim of this study was to explore if a scientific open-source, readily available, lava-flow-modelling code (VolcFlow) would suffice for lava emplacement forecasting, focusing on the first seven days of the eruption. We only the open data that were released during the crisis and previously available data sets. The rheology of the lava, as well as the emission rate, are of utmost relevance when modelling lava flow, and these data were not readily available. Satellite lava extent analysis allowed us to preliminarily estimate its velocity, the average flow emitted, and flow viscosity. These estimates were numerically adjusted by maximising the Jaccard morphometric index and comparing the area flooded by the lava for a simulated seven-day advance with the real advance of the lava in the same timescale. The manual search for the solution to this optimization problem achieved morphometric matches of 85% and 60%. We obtained an estimated discharge rate of about 140 m³/s of lava flow during the first 24 h of the eruption. We found the emission rate then asymptotically decreased to 60 m³/s. Viscosity varied from 8 × 10⁶ Pa s, or a yield strength of 42 × 10³ Pa, in the first hours, to 4 × 10⁷ Pa s and 35 × 10³ Pa, respectively, during the remainder of the seven days. The simulations of the lava emplacement up to 27 September showed an acceptable distribution of lava thickness compared with the observations and an excellent geometrical fit. The calculations of the calibrated model required less time than the simulated time span; hence, flow modelling can be used for emergency management. However, both speed and accuracy can be improved with some extra developments and guidance on the data to be collected. Moreover, the available time for management, once the model is ready, quasi-linearly increases as the forecasting time is extended. This suggests that a predictive response during an emergency with similar characteristics is achievable, provided that an adequate rheological description of the lava is available. Full article